About our DFES
This annual report creates a picture of how the energy system might look by 2050. The analysis models different 'drivers' of change; like the uptake of electric cars, low carbon heating, renewable energy or changing consumer behaviours.
The result is four 'scenario worlds', each offering a different picture of the future. We publish this as an interactive summary, a technical report, and as interactive maps. We also publish the raw data so users can create their own analysis.
The research isn't just for our drive to lowering emissions. We want to share insights with local councils, regional planning authorities, businesses, or charities to help them create their own climate action plans.
Frequently asked questions
We use thousands of lines of data and work with forecasting experts to make sure we're delivering research to the highest possible standard. While no one can predict exactly what will happen in the future, data forecasting helps us to understand the range of possibilities. For example, our 'System Transformation' scenario forecasts how the energy system would work if millions of homes use hydrogen instead of carbon-intensive natural gas to heat their homes. By changing these different 'drivers' in different scenarios and understanding what could happen, we can make better plans to invest in our network in a more efficient, cost-effective and fair way. We want to collaborate with our stakeholders - local authorities, for example - so they can use our research to help make making climate crisis plans for their areas.
The UK energy system is beginning a period of revolutionary change as we continue to move away from fossil fuels and towards low carbon technology, aiming to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050. Coupled with the impact of the pandemic, the future is of course uncertain. Having excellent data forecasting is a vital tool for us to be able to plan investment in our network, support customers, and deliver insights for stakeholders to enable more electric vehicles, renewable energy, low carbon heating and smart technology. With a clearer picture of the future, we can make sure we're doing everything possible to reach Net Zero emissions and help our stakeholders do the same. After our round of engagement last year, we found 90% of local authorities who responded to our survey said they plan to use DFES data to inform their climate action plans.
You can download all of the raw data in excel format (.xlsx) by using the links below. The files range between 7mb and 34mb in size.
- Electric HGV bus, coach, minibus scenarios - LSOA
- Domestic heating scenarios - LSOA
- Electric van scenarios - LSOA
- Electric car scenarios - LSOA
- I&C heating scenarios - LSOA
- I&C connection count scenarios - LSOA
- Small scale PV scenarios - LSOA
- Electric motorcycle scenarios - LSOA
- I&C batteries scenarios - LSOA
- Domestic district heating scenarios - LSOA
- Electric taxi PHV scenarios - LSOA
- Distributed generation scenarios - MSOA
- I&C district heating scenarios - LSOA
- Domestic batteries scenarios - LSOA
- Domestic connection count scenarios - LSOA